The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 | Ian Bremmer

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqVfnC_muaI

Speaker: Ian Bremmer (Founder, Eurasia Group) Date Recorded: January 5, 2026 Duration: 50:45

Overview

2026 is identified as a critical tipping point year for global geopolitics. Ian Bremmer breaks down the most significant risks facing the world, with a focus on U.S. political and foreign policy shifts under the Trump administration.

Top Key Risks for 2026

1. U.S. Political Revolution

• Trump is deeply committed to and highly capable of transforming the political landscape
• The U.S. is unwinding its own global order
• Moving away from rule-based international system toward direct control model

2. The “Donroe Doctrine” (U.S. Western Hemisphere Dominance)

• Trump is reviving and reinterpreting the Monroe Doctrine
• Focus on asserting U.S. primacy over the Western Hemisphere
• Venezuela Crisis: The extraction and trial of Nicolás Maduro marks a major policy shift
  • U.S. military intervention to remove Maduro
  • Focus on oil resources (Venezuela has world’s largest reserves)
  • Challenge: Transitioning to stable, U.S.-friendly government will be difficult
  • Risk of heavy-handed tactics spurring regional backlash
• Potential military actions: Taking offshore oil rigs, strategic resource control
• International concerns: World leaders condemn as breach of international law

3. Europe Under Siege

• Core of Europe is weakening
• NATO faces escalating Russian aggression
• Security threats from Russia’s military buildup
• Concerns about territorial integrity of allied nations

4. Russia’s Continued Aggression

• Ongoing military threat to NATO members
• Potential for conflict escalation
• Strategic pressure on Eastern European allies

5. China’s Economic and Strategic Positioning

• China demonstrating economic capability to retaliate against U.S. policies
• Competition in technology and energy sectors
• Strategic advantage in post-carbon energy generation
• U.S. opposition to clean energy threatens American AI leadership

Key Geopolitical Dynamics

Trump’s Foreign Policy Approach:

• Concepts introduced: “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) and “FAFO” (Find Out)
• Different countries adopt different strategies in response to U.S. unilateralism
• More cautious approach needed with China due to demonstrated retaliation capability
• Less constrained by international law and traditional diplomatic norms

International Law Concerns:

• U.S. military extraction of Maduro signals abandonment of international law as binding constraint
• Countries viewing U.S. as no longer bound by agreed rules
• Chilling effect on global security arrangements

Technological and Emerging Risks

• AI Governance Crisis: “The greatest opportunity and peril humanity has ever engineered, with minimal governance, alignment, or coordination”
• Clean energy and AI competition between U.S. and China
• Water resources emerging as strategic tool

Critical Uncertainties

• Most uncertain geopolitical environment in decades
• Multiple simultaneous crises across regions
• Unpredictability of Trump administration foreign policy
• Potential for unintended consequences from interventionist approach
• Difficulty predicting regional stability outcomes

Potential Positive Outlook

• Opportunity for positive change through AI advancement
• Potential for citizen engagement and mobilization
• Crisis as catalyst for reassessment of global governance

Bottom Line

2026 represents a fundamental shift in global order from rule-based international system to a power-based system where dominant nations assert direct control. The combination of U.S. domestic political upheaval, active military interventions, and erosion of international law norms creates unprecedented uncertainty for global security, economics, and governance.

Video Details:

• Host: Helen Walters (TED)
• Channel: TED
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• Views: 35K (1 day old)
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